Georgetown: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted a 4.3 per cent growth rate for Guyana this year even as it is projecting that economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean will stay in low gear in its 2014 forecast for the region.
During his budget speech, Finance Minister, Dr Ashni Singh had stated that Guyana’s economy is projected to expand by 5.6 per cent in 2014, with the non-sugar economy projected to grow by 5.2 per cent.
He told the National Assembly that the inflation rate is pegged at five per cent compared to 0.9 per cent last year, the lowest rate in decades. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.2 per cent last year while the non-sugar GDP rose by 6.3 per cent. In 2013, the country’s economy recorded its eighth consecutive year of growth.
Meanwhile, the IMF said the recovery in the US and other advanced economies are expected to bolster export growth, but lower world commodity prices and rising global funding costs are likely to weigh on activity across the region.
The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere released on April 24 in Lima, Peru, projects regional growth of 2½ per cent in 2014, down from 2¾ per cent in 2013. Weak investment and subdued demand for the region’s exports held back activity in 2013, as did increasingly binding supply bottlenecks in a number of economies.
For 2015, the IMF projects a modest pickup, to three per cent.
According to the report, Latin America still faces a number of downside risks. The key risk is a sharper decline in commodity prices caused by weaker demand from some of the major commodity-importing economies, especially China. Although the effects from a gradual and orderly normalisation of US monetary policy should be contained for most of the region, increased capital flow volatility also remains a risk.
Growth in the financially integrated economies – Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay – in 2014 is expected to remain the same as in 2013, at 3½ per cent. However, the average growth number masks considerable divergence across countries.
You must be logged in to post a comment.